• A political risk advisory for
    global strategists and leaders in Chile

  • Politics matter

    Fitting the political landscape
    into the full picture

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Chile and Latin American affairs

Editorial 2024

The war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza have put pressure on Latam leaders to take sides.  Risks additionally relate to China’s potential resolve to regain its glorious past and retake Taiwan in a military operation affecting global stability. These geopolitical conflicts exacerbate leaders in Latam to take ideological sides, blurring their need to remain neutral at a time of erosion of International Law at a multilateral level.

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Chile 2024: risks and opportunities

Editorial 2024: The advancement of criminal gangs with regional tentacles, such as Venezuela’s "Tren de Aragua" perpetrating not only illicit crime but also the apparent killing of one of Venezuela’s detractors, has moved the security issue to the top of the Government Agenda. The trend of illicit activities connected with criminal gangs, the problem of the influx of illegal immigrants associated with violent crime, and the killings of police officers on duty have outraged the population, pushing for Boric to enact stringent legislation.

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Global Affairs

Editorial 2025

(Feb. 2025). Donald Trump has regained the presidential seat for a 2nd term in office. Trump’s traditional “transactionalism” is expected to surge again to force America’s closest allies to pay their dues, deliver on security issues, and bridge any trade deficit with commercial partners. Such is the current situation with Canada and Mexico, threatened with tariffs to push allies to increase resources on the border and double their efforts on border security to deal with illegal aliens and drug trafficking crossing into American soil. A few days after Trump’s Jan 20 inauguration, the White House announced tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be in force unless America’s closest allies increase security measures to stop illegal immigration and fentanyl smuggling into the USA.  After the initial political uproar, both Canada and Mexico had phone conversations with Trump and agreed to mobilize resources, monitor and restrict illegal entry, and deepen surveillance of drug smuggling. Having hit a security goal, Trump announced the suspension of tariffs for 30 days. 

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Top 5 drivers

Take a deeper look at our weekly monitoring per driver.

  • A 25 year cycle

    A 25 year cycle

    With the demise of Pinochet’s rule in 1989, the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia started a 25-year-political cycle marked by stability and growth.

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  • Economic resilience

    Economic resilience

    Bloomberg estimates that Chile has a 5% chance to be hit by recession as China continues slowdown. Thanks to prudent macroeconomics policies, Standard & Poor’s have again confirmed AA+ on financial resilience in Chile.

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  • Social Change

    Social Change

    By the end of 2015, however, Bachelet’s NM government acknowledged the end of the commodities boom and the necessity to readapt the government’s priorities. There were 2 choices only: either maintain the path of progress seen in Chile for the last 25 years or “go south” by falling into the trap of populist decisions.

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  • Blind justice

    Blind justice

    One direct benefit from the apparent attrition in the political class and entrepreneurial elite, was the establishment of an Ethical Commission made up of experts and leaders from the academia to set high standards and design new legislation to rule party elections, campaign financing, new “comers” (new parties from the public sphere) and a limit to re-election of MP’s.

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  • Productivity

    Productivity

    WEF’s country report 2015 / 2016 puts Chile on the 35th position in the competitiveness ranking worldwide (140 countries). Even though Chile is 2 positions below in the ranking compared to 2014, Chile still leads in the Latin American region.

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