Editorial 2023/2024: Planetary Politics and Warfare

This rivalry has taken a security caveat, now with Russia's aggressive invasion of Ukraine, the sanctions response by the West, and the drastic reduction of gas supply from Russia to the EU. As the war drags on, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has proved to be Putin's gravest miscalculation: it has prompted the West to unite around Ukraine (now NATO is welcoming Finland and Sweden as members - unthinkable a decade ago). This unified stance is not only around the values of democracy and/or the principles of nation-state self-determination or territorial integrity, as contained in the UN charter; the West now fears Russia would not stop at Ukraine, emboldening China to invade Taiwan. The war has prompted the EU, with immediacy, to find new energy sources to reduce its dependency on Russian gas. Expert voices in the past pointed to gas dependency as a weakness in security and defense strategies; Nord Stream 2 negotiations with Angela Merkel sealing the deal for gas supply to the EU was most likely read in Moscow as a liability in security strategy.  In addition to the ongoing conflict and war, China has continued reaffirming its partnership with Russia while promoting China as a peace broker, intermediary, or facilitator in the conflict. However, in a televised interview, the Chinese ambassador to France went as far as sustaining that Ukraine was not a sovereign state recognized by the United Nations; in fact, he expressed that ex-Soviet nations are not sovereign states, which caused EU leaders to repudiate his opinions. This rhetoric, however, can only be understood within the China-Taiwan issue. China has also shown its military might and swiftness through virtual exercises as hybrid warfare communications campaigns. It is intended to warn the world that, if necessary, Taiwan could be invaded by military force if the One-China principle and its status quo are not adhered to. Tensions are higher now, with the AUKUS alliance in the Indo-Pacific to deter Chinese military presence in the South China Sea. And the diplomatic visits between the Taiwanese representative and American legislators do not help. The latter has prompted the EU to show leaks in their unification regarding how deep their alliance with the USA might be in case of a Chinese military incursion into Taiwan. On a recent trip, France's Macron appeased the Chinese for pragmatic reasons, talking about Europe's "strategic autonomy" and diverting from the EU's "de-risking" policy to avoid confrontation with China, which led to EU's Josep Borrel to strongly contradict Macron and reaffirm the EU should be vigilant on Taiwan, warning Xi Jinping of a red line that should not be crossed.  This is all taking place when Taiwan stands out as a major producer of semiconductors and a chip manufacturer. Taiwan is a geopolitical ally for the West in the technology breakthrough and leadership race.  For America, a chip shortage is a geopolitical failure that must be avoided at all costs. 

How does this conflict affect Latin American countries?

Latin American countries are still trying hard not to take sides in what is termed an "active non-alignment," as posited by Jorge Heine, but such configuration grows difficult to sustain if the war prolongs. Moreover, Brazil's Lula intervention in the conflict by visiting Xi in China and blaming both Russia and Ukraine for the war raised the eyebrows of Western leaders. But just as Biden has continued to support Lula's effort to protect Amazon by pledging to donate USD 500 M., Biden and Xi have also continued to cooperate on decarbonization pledges, showing the world there are still areas where shared interests mold states' behavior for positive outcomes.   Rightfully, Lula in Portugal backed down by acknowledging that territorial integrity should be respected as a basic principle in the Westphalia system of States. Ukraine's Zelensky has spoken telematically twice in Chile, first at the UC university online and then for the Chilean Congress, also virtual. Chile has become the only South American country where Zelensky has addressed the evolvement of war and reaffirmed Ukraine's territorial integrity, sovereignty, and self-determination. The effects of de-coupling, warfare intensity, and peer competition may reach unprecedented geopolitical heights, obliging Latin American countries to opt for a side. If this occurs, the world and warfare will touch a dangerous line by making alliances at two poles.

Planetary Politics?

If you think these are the only concerns in heightened insecurity and propensity to a major escalation to war (one which is nuclear and devastating), do not forget governments all over the Planet have been urged to do more in their pleas and ambitions to curtail their CO2 emissions and reduce global warming which threatens the very existence of humanity. Civil society is pressing harder at multilateral fora, especially after Covid-19, and in particular with the successful accomplishment of the High Seas Treaty after years of negotiations to protect the ocean by 30% in 2030 and its biodiversity from being depleted and protect the water's capacity to store CO2. Regarding the role of civil society in agenda setting and policy goals,  are governments truly listening to experts and paying enough attention to their citizens' pleas to control the overlapping crises affecting humanity and life on the Planet? Climate change, global warming, warfare, pandemics, inequality, and insecurity, among other crises, coexist. Put bluntly, could the various crises affecting the planetary order be channeled to reach effective solutions, or will the worst-case scenarios and their predictions become a reality? If there is optimism among social and political scientists such as Ian Bremmer, these crises will lead to transformation and positive change. As Ikenberry and Nye suggest, rival powers should find a way to cooperate and co-lead, or we will head into dire instability. At one critical point, it might be all about survival or the Planet surviving our makings. In a new "Planteray Politics," as Burke et al. suggest, a new politics may be advocated above warfare and pollution, famine, and externalities, whereby citizens might sue their governments for failing to protect their lives, or actors may be held accountable for trespassing ecological boundaries with a harmful effect on health.  Hence, the perspective of an authoritarian World Order propelled by AI, used to surveil companies and state and non-state actors to securitize the Planet and human survival, may not be too different from your favorite sci-fi movie. A perspective that is not quite palatable to foresee or even predict. 

May 1, 2023

Soledad Soza