Chile 2024: risks and opportunities
Editorial 2024: The advancement of criminal gangs with regional tentacles, such as Venezuela’s "Tren de Aragua" perpetrating not only illicit crime but also the apparent killing of one of Venezuela’s detractors, has moved the security issue to the top of the Government Agenda. The trend of illicit activities connected with criminal gangs, the problem of the influx of illegal immigrants associated with violent crime, and the killings of police officers on duty have outraged the population, pushing for Boric to enact stringent legislation.
However, after the government’s failed trip to offer peaceful negotiations with the radicalized ethnic Mapuche people, resulting in an insurgent attack, Boric instructed a Cabinet reshuffle for more politically talented figures coming from the ex-Concertacion center-left coalition that had governed Chile for a 25/30-year cycle. However, the population feeling at daily risk by falling prey to any of the many illicit activities (theft, robbery, assault, killings, etc.) may still resort to authoritarian figures/measures in the next presidential cycle, according to recent surveys. Polls point to population favoring political figures typically associated with conservatism and center right-wing parties (and the newly far-right "Republicans" party with a formidable presence in Congress today). Risks remain moderate around the surge of an authoritarian, populist leader, but the fact that the population had rejected the 2nd draft of a new Constitution, which, if not radical in foundational principles, had the precepts of a conservative or Catholic value-driven mindset, provoking again "fear” in voters, especially from women, points to Chileans preferring moderate solutions rather than radical or extreme ones on either side of the political spectrum.
Editorial 2023: The two systemic shocks of the social unrest, affecting governance and the rule of law in 2019, and then the irruption of the pandemic of COVID-19 whose effects were deeply felt on the economy, brought a new generation of leaders to the presidential seat. New elected President Gabriel Boric transited from "foundational" pleas to opting for pragmatism to prioritize measures on security on the streets and organized crime post-pandemic times, thus diverting from his original agenda on social welfare and the fight against inequality. The process of writing a new Constitution, conceived as a political way out of the riots and violence against inequality, culminated in a reject vote on the proposed draft for the new rules in a new Magna Carta, putting an end to Pinochet’s 1980 Constitution, which -nonetheless - had been reformed and fundamental rights had been introduced by both Lagos and Bachelet. Setting aside the highly polarized process, the radical ideas proposed in the drafting process, and the numerous scandals by the constituents, the population moved to the center of the political spectrum. Given the rise in crime and the “fear" sentiment (rather than "hope") caused by voters by the radical foundational principles contained in the draft, conservatism surged in the referendum vote. Notwithstanding, Boric’s first year has managed to curtail the fiscal deficit and inflation rates after COVID-19. Still, economic stagnation with low FDI after the social unrest has affected the chances for pushing a more aggressive agenda on tax reform, for example. New opportunities came up, however, in lithium extraction through public-private partnership projects.
Editorial 2018: The 2017 electoral cycle has brought center-right Chile Vamos Coalition back to power. President-elect Sebastián Piñera will be ruling the country for another 4-year term. What are the risks and opportunities for a conservative coalition steering the country into enhanced prosperity after Reforms 2014-2017?
Editorial 2017: In an electoral year, get the latest on the presidential race through analysis of each of the candidates running for the presidency. What do they bring about governance, growth focus, and inclusiveness?
