Continuity and Change after a 30-year political cycle

A complete retrospect analysis is needed to understand what went wrong for Chile to experience the 2019 social unrest—examining how the electoral cycle of 2019 brought Piñera back to the Presidential seat and the opportunities missed to move #Chile away from a populist surge is critical to understand the underlying forces propelling the anger explosion in October 2019.  Why is looking back to Bachelet’s term a necessary exercise? Bachelet’s 2nd generation reforms averted the rage from citizens demanding to narrow the gaps (Students’ Protests 2006, 2011). However, the rage contained during Bachelet’s reform negotiations could no longer be averted when the Agenda of Transformation stalled during Piñera’s 2nd term. Rage made its comeback by failing to embrace a safety net to bridge #inequality during Piñera’s comeback in 2020. Given the urgent pleas from citizens claiming better living conditions, these should have entered Piñera’s Coalition’s Agenda in 2020. However, disparities have not been one of the banners in conservative parties, just as security and crime had not been President Boric’s coalition’s top priorities. Still, both Piñera and Boric had to deal with these non-priorities during their presidencies when these became urgent needs to secure governance. On what went wrong and whether they could have done more to avoid the social upheaval in 2019 or diminish the crime rate among the poorest, Country Risk Chile’s take has led us to the times before the social unrest in 2019 to observe the elite’s apparent disconnection to citizens’ pressing needs. Micro pressures were present before the social upheaval in 2019, but elites’ cognitive dissonance caused by ideological postures and complacency explains the status-quo inertia.

Country Risk Chile has been closely monitoring the 2016 top risks and drivers until the 2022 electoral cycle that brought Frente Amplio and Gabriel Boric to the presidential seat. Before the social #upheaval in 2019 and the #COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 surged, Bachelet’s 2nd generation #reforms, albeit lacking in technical perfection, impeded the rage explosion back then. Having correctly diagnosed Chileans’ discontent and impatience for better public policies and living standards, Bachelet started her 2nd term with reforms to tackle #inequality. Unfortunately, these took place when the commodities boom, which had characterized much of the Concertacion governing period (20-25 years), began to recede. Bachelet’s reforms and the #ideological battle surrounding her transformation agenda cemented the path to ex-President Piñera’s comeback in 2019, whose diagnosis differed from Bachelet’s. In an interview, Piñera described Chile as an “oasis,” signaling Chile’s stability instead of the turmoil and volatility in other parts of the world. Behind this metaphor lies the political elite’s disconnection with disparities and gaps; by October 2019, the rage was unleashed. Examining Bachelet’s latest address to the nation during her 2nd term is a foretold chronicle of the social upheaval, pointing to legislators’ failure to anticipate the unrest through complacency, commissions, or shortcomings. Bachelet’s address to the nation in 2017 exposed the dangers and #risks of failing to tackle inequality or improve the economic model.

By Soledad Soza, May 15, 2024