Energy Transition: Chile plays in the major leagues

When President Boric announced Chile’s National Lithium Strategy in April 2023, media outlets thought it was a “nationalization” scheme, and therefore, the news provoked woes among investors. However, this national strategy should not be a surprise. It follows up on Bachelet’s piece of law back in 2017 declaring lithium as a strategic resource, anticipating the times when lithium or “white gold” would be at the center of the strategic energy transition to help countries move into clean energy goals and de-carbonization targets under climate change adverse effects on the Planet.  

The EU, for instance, has been working on an ambitious agenda, the Green Deal in 2020 and their Fit for 55 strategies in 2021 (to reduce EU emissions by at least 55% by 2030), and today, with the war in Ukraine, the EU’s excessive reliance on Russian gas has accelerated the EU strategy for renewable energy. Therefore, energy is central to the EU’s national security. EU commits to reach net-zero targets by 2050 and switch from an economy reliant on greenhouse emissions. For the White House, the lithium deposits in the “lithium triangle” (Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina) offer possibilities for FDI in Chile, with American companies using modern technology to extract brine. The Biden administration seeks to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030; lithium-ion batteries are essential to hit this goal.  There is a significant demand for lithium-ion batteries to secure a steady energy transition. Lithium-ion batteries are rechargeable, can store a vast amount of energy, and are lightweight, and their sales will continue to increase exponentially in the next few years. Chile also has green energy ambitions to decarbonize its economy, with pioneering projects in solar energy to supply locally and green hydrogen projects to help the transition further. 

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Consolidating democracy. Any populist phantoms around?

The presidential campaign has been unleashed; the games have commenced in the traditional battle for power.  This is not different from any other presidential race Chile has had since the start of democratic times with Aylwin as President in 1990.   It has been 25 years of transition to the democratic game, and 2 coalitions have been circling and taking posts for the Presidential seat. However, the end of a stable political cycle - with most presidential terms ruled by the center-left coalition, ex Concertación de Partidos Por la Democracia, today Nueva Mayorìa - is facing all the challenges brought about by the end of a stable cycle with the beginning of a new political era. In this new era, post-transition times, empowered middle classes press the state to tackle disparities after 25/30 years of steady growth but uneven distribution of wealth.  Country Risk Chile analyzed the possible scenarios with three frontrunners for the Presidency in March 2018.  This analysis considers each candidate’s risk and opportunity to bring to the political landscape against economic slowdown, productivity issues, social change, and citizen’s disaffection with political parties. 

What do they bring to the opportunity side? What is their Achilles’ heel?

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2016 - The year of productivity in Chile

As part of our weekly monitoring on Country Risk Chile’s top 5 political risks 2016, we bring a fresh analysis on risk Nr 5, Productivity.  This week, we analyze the public and private initiatives to foster growth and productivity against the negative external scenario of low record copper prices, China's economic slowdown, an appreciated dollar and the impact of second-generations reforms - led by the center-left Nueva Mayoría coalition- on investors' confidence.  

On March 31st, Chilean Finance Minister,  Rodrigo Valdés, announced the implementation of 22 measures as part of the 2016 Chilean Agenda for Growth and Productivity declared by President Michelle Bachelet.  Alongside these 22 measures,  the Chilean CPC (Confederation of Productivity and Commerce, comprising the local entrepreneurs) came up with 109 additional measures to boost growth.  There is a widespread concern as well as an agreement that the country needs to re-direct efforts on growth and minimize the impact of second-generation reforms on investors' confidence.  Both government authorities and local entrepreneurs agree on the urgent need to find new strategies to deal with external factors such as the end of the commodities boom,  the appreciated dollar and low record copper price,  especially when the Chinese are shifting their economy - from being a giant consumer of raw materials to playing a major role in the service market.   Macroeconomic factors and the uncertainty triggered by internal reforms are compelling authorities and local entrepreneurs to analyze strategies to recover the path of sustainable growth that Chile has enjoyed in this 25-year political cycle and ensure its usual resilience at a time of volatility.  What is new in this regard is the inclusion of advanced human capital in the Agenda and general recognition about improving educational variables for the first time amongst local capital stakeholders. 

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