Jan/17 Wildfires in Chile: On Climate change, institutional response and conspiracy theories

(Photograph Reuters) 

Experts Julian Montero and Marc Castellnou from the EU Commission on Civil Protection & Humanitarian Help are holding a press conference in Chile. Sitting next to Castellnou is the Head of CONAF (National Forests Corporation), Aaron Cavieres, and acting Minister of Agriculture, Claudio Ternicier.  Castellnou’s press conference is meant to leave no doubts. The January/17 wildfires in the regions of Cauquenes, O’Higgins, Maule, and Bio-Bio have been of such devastating intensity, “no country in the world is prepared to deal with fires of this magnitude, the characteristics they presented, the simultaneity of outbreaks, and their aggressive nature.”  

Indeed, international experts, the press, and national data show that the magnitude, nature, and scope of the fires that broke out in January this year in Chile were some of the worst on the planet.  According to Castellnou, the fires were unique in the pattern in which they spread and the velocity and fierceness in which they spread.  

Castellnou stated Chile went literally through a “firestorm.”

Castellnou remarked that 8 years of relentless drought, scarcity of rainfalls, and a shortage of water supply are among the reasons that explain why the fires broke havoc in three regions in Chile. These are the regions where the olives are produced,  the valleys from where Chilean wine is exported, the valleys where grapes are harvested, where fruits and pine plantations are grown in co-habitation with native species but also subjected to climate change within the precepts of an extractive economy. Consequently, these are the regions in need of improved planning and regulation.  The following is an analysis of the effects and the urgency of upgrading the institutional response in the planning and regulation of major stakeholders in one of the most productive regions in Chile.  

 

Chronicle of an “announced” firestorm:

These fires should not come as a total surprise. 

By 2009, experts were raising their voices about climate change and high temperatures in Chile.  The Global Climate Risk Index 2017 places Chile amongst the 10 most vulnerable countries to face the effects of climate change. 

By Jan 3, Chilean expert Michel de L'Herbe discussed the possibility of extremely devastating fires in Chile during summer before the Parliament’s Agricultural Committee. De L'Herbe raised the issue of preparedness to deal with the event.  The expert suggested that the government should ask for international help to equip itself well in advance.  

During the weeks the fires blazed, TV cameras showed the footage of rural population running to help placate the fires, wherever they started, they would be initiated somewhere else as if conspiring against the titanic efforts to put them out by human contingents.  The images showed small villages surrounded by the blaze, horses, and wildlife running away, desperate women, men, and children fighting and eventually escaping the inevitable.  The fires marched on and consumed everything in their way: houses, wildlife, native forests, plantations, vineyards, grapes, and olives to the awe and shock of TV viewers who could not believe the predatory effect of extreme wildfires. 

Before Chilean institutional response aligned with international aid (helicopters, planes, fire brigades, two supertankers), fires had prompted the authorities to declare three regions under a state of disaster and announce a red alert to the neighboring regions further north and further south of the epicenter of fires.  Day in and day out, fires continued to devour thousands of acres per day.

While the fires blazed, the press revealed information on the number of equipment the Chilean state had at its disposal for these events. CONAF’s Director Aaron Cavieres recognized in El Mercurio newspaper that one plane was under repair, and two more were non-operative, out of a total of 6 aircraft belonging to CONAF to deal with fires.  The rest of the crafts are rented according to needs.   Unsurprisingly, such news sparked outrage among the Chilean population, who began pressing for Cavieres to step down on social media and calling for reform to CONAF to become a 100% public entity. CONAF is a private-public body with a public mandate. 

As a result of the fires,  data shows roughly 500,000 hectares were consumed by the fires, towns like Santa Olga were devoured in hours; the economic loss to the forest industry is well above US$ 350 M; experts add collateral damage to the productive chain and incalculable damage to the ecosystem and biodiversity.  Despite conflicting views from academia on whether or not mono planting (pine and eucalyptus as part of the Chilean export matrix) is to blame for the intensity of the fires, there is - however - agreement from both experts, government, and academics that improved regulation, better planning and strict supervision of firewalls will need to be seriously implemented.

NASA provides an interactive map showing how fires have progressively accumulated in number, scope, and intensity from June 2016 to January 2017.  In this map, the incremental number of fires is correlated with increased temperatures in the affected areas; January fires are exponentially superior in number and scope, as are the temperatures. 

A recent academic study presented in the Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research, authors Roberto Ponce et al. (2014) conclude that:

“Considering the results, the major conclusion of this study is that the Chilean agricultural sector is vulnerable to the change in agricultural yields as a consequence of climate change.(…) Therefore, according to the results, even if climate change may not have large absolute consequences, it may produce large distributional consequences, with fruits producers being worst-off than crops producers. In this regard, climate change could threaten a key economic sector since fruits account for 31% of total food exports. On the other hand, the statistical analysis confirmed the robustness of our results.”  

Source:   Ponce et al (2014): "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change on the Chilean Agricultural Sector: A non-linear agricultural supply model", Chilean Journal of Agricultural Research, Vol 74, Nr 4 available on http://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0718-58392014000400005

Today experts conclude the origin of the fires began in Cauquenes, in Santa Rosa. And from there it spread under the lethal combination of drought, rain deficit, high temperatures and gusty winds. It is alleged that in Santa Rosa, Cauquenes, a group of workers were hired by CGE (electrical company) to clean the areas to avoid trees from contact with relay stations and cables.  According to evidence found in the area, their work was "negligent and careless".   Consequently, the men were arrested and they face criminal charges.  The National Prosecutor has also sent a probe into the role played the CGE executives. 

The best, the worst and conspiracy theories

Chile is no stranger to natural disasters.  Proof of that is the history of earthquakes and tsunamis.  The Chilean resilience is widely discussed in local and international press in the wake of the firestorm.  BBC world, for example,  highlighted the character of the people of Santa Olga town, who fled the blaze overnight to return to rebuild from ashes. Some had been severely affected by the devastating earthquake of 2010 and would state that "if the quake did not kill me, the fire could not, so that means I can start again".  But Chilean resilience also comes with solidarity.  When Santa Olga burned to ashes, there were thousands who came to help, to give food, clothes, medicines. They organized themselves to rescue wild animals, pets, horses, foxes, birds, cows which were all severely injured.   One of those organizations is DESAFIO LEVANTEMOS CHILE, pioneered by deceased Cubillos, a Chilean businessman who resorted to philanthropy and campaigned within owners of big business in Chile to help build schools, houses, hospitals in the wake of calamities or natural disasters.  The organization has grown to include professionals, volunteers, and reacts with promptness in emergencies.  So is TECHO PARA CHILE, pioneered by the Jesuits in Chile, enrolling students in constructing homes to those affected by calamities.  The level of response and the money raised to come to help to Santa Olga town exceeded all expectations.  

Chile is also connected to the world and is not immune to fake news and conspiracy theories.  There were many: some showed videos of ethnic minorities starting fires, and one video released on social media sent paranoia levels high in the population; the video was one year old and was taken from a criminal case, independent from the fires.  Amidst conflicting opinions on who or what was to blame, suspicions arose due to the unusual simultaneity of outbreaks; some conspiracy theories referred to forest companies setting their pine plantations ablaze to collect millionaire figures in insurance because the TPP had not worked out.  The media went frantic. There were, of course, opportunistic arsonists and criminal intent by individuals who were arrested by police, but their occurrence was by a very low margin. Authorities did address these concerns during press conferences, saying that "there were some strange elements in the propagation of fires that did not fit the usual pattern of outbreaks" and that the police and justice were working on evidence pointing to that end. Naturally,  the timing was perfect to conduct opportunistic polls pointing to a decreased support for Bachelet's leadership and institutional response. That was added to the negative reply from CONAF to rent an American Supertanker because it was unsuitable for the Chilean geography, which prompted Lucy Ana Aviles, a Chilean married to the grandson of the Walmarts´empire, to take to social media to voice her concern over the fires which had already taken 10 lives. Pressure mounted, and the government agreed to bring the aircraft to be paid for by her foundation, Vientos Del Sur.

Such a cocktail of tensions finally made headlines in the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post with all the sensationalistic approach. 

By then, international aid had materialized just in time for aggressive combat on the fires: by plane with specialized aircraft and on the ground with professional brigades. Coordination between the Chilean Air Force, the military and 2 supertankers, the American Supertanker, the Russian aircraft Ilyushin, and state-of-the-art helicopters and specialized aircraft was successfully coordinated and executed. Brigades from the EU, Colombia, France, Spain, and Venezuela, among others, were key to finally ending the fires.  For 2 weeks, they relentlessly fought to placate the blaze.  

ONEMI, the governmental organism that monitors disasters and alerts the population, was vital to evacuate and put them at minimum risk. ONEMI had already gone through the 2010 earthquake: hard lessons from that experience have upgraded ONEMI into the reliable, prompt-response institution that it is today.

Some conclusions:

Chile's Jan/2017 wildfires are a reminder that science should guide policy-making.  The level of preparedness, regulation, and supervision of norms must be upgraded and strictly followed by all stakeholders: electrical companies, small farmers, forest companies, and individuals.  A new reformulation of land use must be implemented to make the Chilean ecosystem, biodiversity, and economic growth co-exist and sustain itself in the face of climate change.  Fake news on terror attacks, as well as conspiracy theories as the main cause of this major event, can only be fuelled in the population in the absence of efficient regulation and sufficient equipment to combat fires of this nature. Scientific facts put Chile amongst the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change.  Fire bans, like those in Canada or Australia, are a good example of implementing them in summertime or when experiencing drought. Most importantly, everyone is accountable; a spark can initiate an uncontrollable fire under difficult weather conditions such as drought, high temperatures, and gusty winds.  Chile's institutional response must be upgraded to encourage the population, farmers, and forest companies to reach a new consensus on the ecosystem and economic growth. Institutions should devise implementation as part of the national security strategy to minimize economic costs to all populations. A forward-looking approach in line with these climate challenges and an upgrade in regulation is needed.  Jan 2017 was a painful wake-up call. 

 

 

 Soledad Soza, Feb 22, 2017